After 2 Days at CES, A Few Things Are Clear
This year’s CES was a ton of fun. While I have been a technology nerd for a long time (and have been excited about the possibilities of technology for too long), this is the year that has really made it clear that mobile devices and 3D television are going to wind up in a record number of homes and businesses. Amid a mountain of iPhone and iPad bling cases, earbuds made to look like rosary beads (advertised by a girl dancing in hot pants and a skimpy top paradoxically) and manufacturer booths staffed by non-english speakers which was sometimes maddening, there were come clear messages being communicated overall that are important to understand. While some of this may be a big no brainer for those who eagerly wait for the rumor mills to churn out their content on new devices and network developments (like me), hopefully it will still offer some food for thought for those who are in the business and offer some useful insights for those who are watching from afar.
You know, the folks who still have feature phones.
So, in no particular order, here are a few of the developments that I think are truly important for the next year (and maybe longer):
3D TV is Coming, and You Can Invite All Your Friends. Active Shutter Technology will be Over Soon.
Stepping into the LG booth (or zipcode) it was one of the first things to hit you; a passive 3D TV that knocked my socks off. You put on the glasses, you watch the screen, and you have the same great 3D experience, but you want to leave the glasses on. Sure, I have heard all the arguments; it isn’t really 1080p, its really interlaced with alternating lines offering the 3D image its integrity. Guess what? It didn’t matter. The image quality was right up there with anything else I saw at the show (and that includes the Panasonic units in all their grandeur) and still, I wanted to leave the glasses on.
No one is going to pay for the active glasses with this going on. On top of that, active shutter can be really uncomfortable (for me it is really uncomfortable), and no one wants to fight nausea while they watch Avatar. I predict active shutter will go away within 2 years, once Panasonic and Samsung get their arms around the situation.
Side note on the passive 3D glasses front: After our last day at CES, we stopped by the Oakley trailer out in front of the convention center to see their 3D exhibit. I was struck by the difference a higher quality lens makes on the 3D experience (even though I was skeptical walking in; it seemed like a great story to sell more expensive glasses). This is worth paying attention to as things progress from here for 3D.
LTE will Change the Mobile World…Again
Clearly, taking mobile data from under 1 to 1.5 MBPS and low 3 digit latency levels to 12 mbps speeds with under 50 ms latency makes a dramatic difference in what content can be used (and created and shared) where. This makes lots of things possible that weren’t possible before. Which brings us to point #3:
Dual Core Driven Tablets and Smartphones will Change What’s Possible with Devices…Again
At CES, the big buzz was about the MOTO Xoom, the 10.1″ 16:9 aspect ratio Honeycomb Android tablet which will sport a dual core Nvidia processor. This processor is also going into the Droid Bionic, the next generation Moto Smartphone which will also be one of the first LTE (4G) phones to be on the Verizon network as well.
Now there are rumors that Apple’s next iPad will feature a dual core processor of its own (the A5 I believe it is named) and you can bet this will wind up in their next version of the iPhone as well.
Side Note on Apple and iPhone: There has been much speculation about when the next iPhone (IPhone 5 or iPhone 4G, take your pick of names) will be out for Verizon and AT&T. I personally think there is no reason why Apple will offer AT&T a head start with a new phone before Verizon, especially since Verizon figures to be furthest along with their 4G LTE deployment. My prediction is the iPhone Next will hit for both carriers on its normal cycle, July 2011.
Stay tuned for Part II, coming next week.
